America’s Murder Problem Is Very Localized, Not National—Here’s the Proof

Public conversations about violent crime in the United States often suggest that the entire nation is facing a widespread crisis. And don't be fooled; that is by design. Headlines highlight rising homicide numbers, political debates frame crime as a national emergency, and many Americans believe violence is everywhere. But the data tells a very different story.

A 2023 analysis, which this article is based on, by the Crime Prevention Research Center shows that murders in the U.S. are not evenly distributed. Not by any stretch of the propaganda. They are extremely concentrated in a small number of counties, neighborhoods, and even individual streets. Most Americans live in places where murder is virtually nonexistent. And the study shows that it's a fact!

Understanding this concentration is critical for crafting effective policy. If violence is hyper‑localized, then broad national approaches will very likely miss the mark. Targeted interventions in the small number of high‑risk areas could have a far greater impact. The current administration is a perfect example of this tactic. Focus on one area like Washington, DC, for example, and the results speak for themselves. DC is a safer place now than it was before the intervention. Even the Mayor has acknowledged this, so politics aside, the tactic works.

Murder rates are not the primary focus of this article. Instead, we will explore the key findings of the report and examine how murder is distributed across the country through various charts. We will also look at some common factors that contribute to these rates. Ultimately, our main question is why there is such a vast and well-funded effort to demonize all of America based on the actions of merely 2% of the counties in this great nation. This is the real question we need to be asking ourselves, each other, and especially those we have elected to represent us. Many foreigners, as well as a surprising number of Americans, believe this entire country is filled with murderers lurking behind every corner.

But why is that the case?

This perception did not happen by chance; I can assure you of that. So, let's start with the facts!

Most U.S. Counties Experience Zero Murders

In 2020, 52 percent of U.S. counties—home to 10 percent of the population—reported zero murders. Even more striking, 68 percent of counties had one or fewer murders, accounting for only 2.6 percent of all murders nationwide.

Most Americans live in places where homicide is extremely rare. Distribution of murders across U.S. counties in 2020. Over half of all counties recorded zero murders.

A Tiny Fraction of Counties Drive Most Murders

While most counties see little or no homicide, a very small number account for the majority of killings: For context, there are 3,244 counties in the United States.

• Worst 1 percent of counties (31 counties): 42 percent of all murders (see list at end)

• Worst 2 percent (62 counties): 56 percent

• Worst 5 percent: 73 percent

These counties are overwhelmingly urban or urban‑adjacent, including Los Angeles County, Cook County (Chicago), Harris County (Houston), and Philadelphia County.

Breaking down the most dangerous counties in Figure 2 shows that 56% of the murders occur in just 2% of the counties, and 42% in just the worst 1% of the counties.

Murder concentration by county. Just 2 percent of counties account for more than half of all murders. Let that sink in, man!

Cumulative distribution of murders. Only the top 5 percent of counties have 16 or more murders.

Murder Concentration Has Increased Over Time

From 2010 to 2020, murder concentration increased:

• In 2010, the worst 5 percent of counties accounted for 71 percent of murders.

• In 2014, that share dipped to 69 percent.

• By 2020, it rose to 73 percent—the highest level in over a decade.

This shift is not due to population changes. The populations of these counties remained relatively stable. So what happened? These are effects, so there is an underlying cause that manifests them.

Share of murders occurring in the most dangerous counties, 2010–2020.

Population share of the worst 5 percent of counties, 2010–2020. Population remained stable.

Even Within High‑Murder Counties, Violence Is Hyper‑Localized

Zooming in reveals even more concentration. In Los Angeles County:

• Worst 10 percent of ZIP codes: 41 percent of murders

• Worst 20 percent: 67 percent

• Worst 30 percent: 82 percent

• Safest 40 percent: 1 percent

This mirrors research showing that 1 percent of streets can account for 25 percent of violent crime. Take a minute to let that register!

Distribution of murders across ZIP codes in Los Angeles County.

Gun Ownership Patterns Do Not Match Murder Patterns

The report highlights what many will see as a surprising contrast due to what they have been told over and over and over and over and over again: Guns are the problem!

• Rural households have 79 percent higher gun ownership than urban households.

• Suburban households have 37.9 percent higher gun ownership than urban households.

• Yet urban areas—where gun ownership is lowest—experience far higher murder rates.

Contrary to popular belief, Gun ownership alone does not explain murder distribution.

But this isn't about guns either.

The data paint a clear picture: murders (by any means) in the United States occur in very small areas, and that concentration has increased over the past decade. Most counties experience no murders at all, while a tiny fraction—primarily urban—account for the overwhelming majority of violence. Even within those counties, murders cluster in specific neighborhoods and street segments.

This means national crime statistics can be extremely misleading even before they are manipulated for political points. They obscure the reality that violence is not evenly distributed but intensely localized.

For policymakers and community leaders, the implications are significant:

• National strategies may have limited impact.

• Targeted interventions in high‑risk counties and neighborhoods are far more likely to reduce violence.

• Understanding the geography of crime is essential for deploying resources effectively.

America does not have a nationwide murder problem. It has a localized murder problem—and solutions must be just as localized.

So why does everyone think that we do? That's what this paper is about, so let's dig deeper.

Why Everyone (including many Americans) Think There’s a Murderer Behind Every Tree

Previous explorations have shown that most Americans live in areas with no murders at all, yet many still feel like danger is everywhere. People from other countries often perceive the U.S. as being similar to the Wild West, where everyone is shooting at each other, making it seem like the most dangerous place on Earth. This disconnect didn't happen by accident; it stems from decades of cultural, political, and media influences that shape how people feel—though not necessarily how they think—about crime, even when the data tells a different story. In other words, it’s a form of manipulation.

Here are a few factors that resonate with me: human behavior is predictable, and anything predictable can be manipulated. If you can anticipate how people will react to a given scenario, you can easily create that scenario to elicit a desired and predictable behavioral response from the population. This manipulation can extend to influencing their thoughts or beliefs. This is not my words, guys; it is all well documented in psychology as well as sociology. I didn't create the information; I am simply passing it along just as someone once did for me.

1. The Crime Wave of the 1970s–1990s Left a Permanent Scar

For 25 years, violent crime really was high. Murders doubled, cities struggled, and serial killers dominated headlines. Even though crime dropped sharply after 1993, the fear from that era stuck. People who lived through it passed that fear to their kids.

2. Local News Built Its Business on Crime Panic

“If it bleeds, it leads” became the formula. Newscasts opened with shootings, break‑ins, and police tape — even in cities where crime was falling. Viewers saw far more violence on TV than existed in their own communities, creating the illusion of constant danger. That is manipulation!

3. National Media Turned Rare Events Into National Threats

A murder in Idaho or Florida becomes a national story within minutes. Your brain interprets this as “crime is everywhere,” even though it’s happening in a tiny number of places.

4. Hollywood Saturated the Culture With Murder

Crime dramas, serial‑killer shows, and true‑crime documentaries made murder feel routine. On TV, every city has a killer. In reality, most detectives never work a homicide case.

5. Humans Overestimate Dramatic Risks

Psychologists call this the availability heuristic: the more vivid and emotional something is, the more common we think it is. Murders are rare — but they’re unforgettable.

6. Politics Weaponizes Fear

For decades, campaigns have used crime as a persuasion tool. Fear works. But it also distorts reality.

The Result

Even though most counties across the United States report zero murders annually, a pervasive sense of danger permeates the American psyche. This feeling of being surrounded by threat is not necessarily grounded in the actual crime statistics or the reality of safety in many communities. Instead, it stems from a complex interplay of factors that include collective memory, the influence of media narratives, psychological perceptions, and the political landscape.

Collective Memory and Its Impact

Collective memory plays a significant role in shaping societal perceptions of safety and danger. Events that have garnered widespread attention, even if they occurred years or decades ago, can linger in the public consciousness. For instance, high-profile murder cases or violent incidents, regardless of their frequency, can create a lasting impression that influences how communities view their own safety. This phenomenon can lead to an exaggerated sense of vulnerability, as people recall past tragedies and allow them to overshadow the realities of their current environment.

The Role of Media

The media also significantly contributes to the perception of danger in American society. News outlets often prioritize sensational stories, particularly those involving violent crime, which can skew public perception. Continuous coverage of violent incidents, whether local or national, can create a narrative that suggests danger is omnipresent. This relentless focus on crime can lead individuals to believe that they are at greater risk than they actually are. Furthermore, social media platforms amplify these narratives, spreading fear and anxiety rapidly through sensational headlines and viral content.

Psychological Factors

Psychologically, humans are wired to be more alert to threats, a trait that has evolved over centuries for survival purposes. This heightened sensitivity can lead to an overestimation of risk, particularly in environments that are perceived as dangerous due to external influences. Cognitive biases, such as the availability heuristic, can cause individuals to judge the likelihood of events based on how easily examples come to mind. Thus, when violent crimes are frequently reported, they become more salient in people's minds, reinforcing the belief that danger is ever-present.

Political Landscape

Additionally, the political landscape plays a crucial role in shaping perceptions of safety and danger. Politicians and policymakers often use crime statistics to drive their agendas, sometimes amplifying fears of violence to garner support for certain policies or legislation. Campaigns that focus on law and order can contribute to a culture of fear, where citizens feel compelled to support more aggressive policing measures or punitive justice systems, even in communities where crime rates are low. This political rhetoric can further entrench the belief that danger is a constant threat.

While the statistical reality in many counties shows a lack of violent crime, the perception of danger among Americans is deeply influenced by collective memory, media portrayals, psychological predispositions, and political narratives. Understanding these factors is essential for addressing the disconnect between actual safety and perceived danger.

Es dient Ihrer Sicherheit. Google Translate (It is for your security "safety"). That is what the Nazis told the German people as they murdered 20 million, all because of a false narrative that drove perceived danger. Stalin, Lenin, Mao... they all used the same justification for their atrocities. The greatest inhumanities were committed by those who claimed to be saving humanity.

And let us not forget our old friend Johann Gottlieb Fichte, who laid Hegel's dialectical process out so clearly. Create the problem-thesis: violent crime/murder portrayed as a nationwide problem. Create opposition to the problem-antithesis: public outrage driven by media influence. Offer the solution to the problem-Synthesis: which is always more power and control to the state for "protection, security, safety".

What was that Ben Franklin said: “Those who would give up essential Liberty, to purchase a little temporary Safety, deserve neither Liberty nor Safety.”

The fact of the matter is, we are being lied to about our nation to manipulate us for political gain. And this is just one in a long list of lies that I and many others have exposed. That alone, being lied to, used to be enough to get people seriously pissed off.

Now, they get far more angry at us for exposing the lies than they do at the people lying to them, even when we prove it.

Let's end with a pearl of common sense. Just because they lie convincingly does not mean you have to believe them. That's a choice. Remember guys: it is our responsibility to make certain that what we believe is in fact true and accurate.

OURS! No one else's. Own that, and we become powerful. Run from it, and we run right into the arms of the manipulators who are more than willing to manipulate us.

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Worst 1% I will let you research what party controlled these places at the time. You may find it illuminating.

Rank	County	State	Murders (2020)
1	Cook	Illinois	775
2	Los Angeles	California	691
3	Harris	Texas	537
4	Philadelphia	Pennsylvania	495
5	New York City (Bronx, Kings, New York, Queens, Richmond)	New York	465
6	Wayne	Michigan	379
7	Shelby	Tennessee	311
8	Maricopa	Arizona	299
9	Baltimore City	Maryland	291
10	Dallas	Texas	281
11	Marion	Indiana	234
12	Miami‑Dade	Florida	231
13	Washington, D.C.	District of Columbia	207
14	San Bernardino	California	203
15	Milwaukee	Wisconsin	201
16	Orleans	Louisiana	191
17	Jackson	Missouri	184
18	Franklin	Ohio	175
19	Cuyahoga	Ohio	172
20	Bexar	Texas	161
21	Tarrant	Texas	156
22	St. Louis (City)	Missouri	156
23	Jefferson	Kentucky	151
24	Broward	Florida	149
25	Alameda	California	148
26	Riverside	California	147
27	Duval	Florida	143
28	Clark	Nevada	139
29	Kern	California	127
30	Mecklenburg	North Carolina	126
31	East Baton Rouge	Louisiana	124